Initial Surge:FEDERAT Inflation in the US peaked at 9% due to factors like food and energy price spikes linked to geopolitical events.
Core Inflation:Stripping out volatile components like food and energy, core inflation provides a more stable measure, indicating a better predictor of future inflation.
Wage Growth
Historically, wage growth and inflation are closely linked, with mid-2022 wage growth suggesting around 4% inflation.
Current TrendsWhile prices indicate around 3% inflation, wage growth aligns with 3.5-4%, suggesting underlying inflation in the 3-3.5% range.
Current TrendsDeclining energy prices have contributed significantly to the one-percentage-point decline in underlying inflation.
Labor Market DynamicsDespite a steady unemployment rate, the number of job openings has decreased, leading to slower wage and price growth.
Policy InfluenceFiscal support reduction and monetary policy tightening have constrained aggregate demand, contributing to the decline in
underlying inflation.
Future OutlookWhile current disinflation trends are positive, uncertainties remain, urging readiness for further actions if inflation persists above the acceptable range.
underlying inflatio